Research Papers: Wändi Bruine de Bruin

Confidence Levels and Likelihood Terms in IPCC Reports: A Survey of Experts from Different Scientific Disciplines

By Wändi Bruine de Bruin et al.

Climatic Change

2022

Scientific assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inform policymakers and the public about the state of scientific evidence and related uncertainties. We studied how experts from different scientific disciplines who were authors of IPCC reports, interpret the uncertainty language recommended in the Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. This IPCC guidance note discusses how to use confidence levels to describe the quality of evidence and scientific agreement, as well likelihood terms to describe the probability intervals associated with climate variables. We find that (1) physical science experts were more familiar with the IPCC guidance note than other experts, and they followed it more often; (2) experts’ confidence levels increased more with perceptions of evidence than with agreement; (3) experts’ estimated probability intervals for climate variables were wider when likelihood terms were presented with “medium confidence” rather than with “high confidence” and when seen in context of IPCC sentences rather than out of context, and were only partly in agreement with the IPCC guidance note. Our findings inform recommendations for communications about scientific evidence, assessments, and related uncertainties.


Which Financial Stressors are Linked to Food Insecurity Among Adults in the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands? An Exploratory Study

By Wändi Bruine de Bruin

Food Security

2022

Food insecurity among adults age 65 and older is a growing public policy concern in European countries, but the extent of the problem and the related financial stressors are unclear. The purpose of this paper is to measure the percent of food insecure individuals in a targeted sample of financially fragile older adults, and to identify associated financial stressors and socio-economic characteristics. This exploratory study is based on an online survey of 1,059 older adults experiencing financial hardship. Participants were recruited through commercial consumer panels in the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands. The proportion of financially fragile older adults reporting food insecurity ranged from 24% in the British sample, 29% in the German sample, and 35% in the Dutch sample. We identified financial stressors that contributed to food insecurity in each country sample. Having more financial stressors increased the risk of food insecurity, which was similar in each country. Within and across country samples, food insecurity is associated with financial stressors. Insights for policy makers, consumer advocates, and social services point to the value of integrating financial and food-related support services, the potential for cross-country collaboration, and efforts that take into account the particular financial circumstances of older adults.


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